A Model for Managing Proxy War Risks and Unforeseen Consequences

A proxy war is a conflict in which a major power plays a significant role in supporting and directing one side of a conflict but does not directly engage in the fighting itself. Proxy wars often have devastating effects on the countries involved, contributing to protracted violence, economic devastation, and regional instability. They can also foster resentment among local populations toward foreign powers, creating breeding grounds for terrorists and other violent extremist groups.

The United States and Iran, for example, are engaged in a proxy war in Syria by backing opposing rebel factions there. Similarly, Russia and the United States have been involved in a proxy war in Ukraine for several years, with Russia supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine while the U.S. backs an array of armed groups there to combat the Islamic State.

To sustain a proxy war, strategists must balance the competing demands of maintaining policy coherence (the degree to which all aspects of the intervention contribute to desired objectives), sustaining the ability to change the policy as conditions change, and developing the capacity to manage risks and unforeseen consequences, both self-inflicted and those beyond control. This article describes a model for analyzing these complex challenges and offers a set of tools to help strategists make the best possible choices in this difficult policy arena.

Proxy wars can be an effective tool when the threat that provokes them is too large to ignore or a direct military response would be too costly for the intervening state. However, they can also be dangerous if the intervention is not well planned and executed. Moreover, a proxy war can become unmanageable as the intervening state develops relationships with its partners that can be exploited to expand its influence.