How Long Will the Ceasefire Agreement Last?

A Ceasefire agreement (or cessation of hostilities agreement) is an official document that outlines the terms and conditions for a temporary halt to armed conflict. The goal is to allow parties to regroup and assess the situation before committing to a more formal peace process.

Despite the best intentions of top leaders, these agreements can fall apart for many reasons. Some are sabotaged by actors seeking to undermine the deal, such as right-wing extremists in Israel or hardline factions within Hamas. Other times, a mistake or act of miscalculation can reignite the armed conflict, such as an accidental rocket launch or a deadly attack at a checkpoint.

This particular ceasefire agreement appears to have some built-in mechanisms that might help it last, including verification arrangements and dispute resolution mechanisms, along with clear rules on when the truce will end. The US, Egypt and Qatar negotiated the document in the context of their efforts to push Israel and Hamas to begin negotiations on a more comprehensive peace process.

However, even if this specific ceasefire holds for the six weeks of its first phase, it remains unclear whether it will be a platform for progress toward lasting peace. For that to happen, the Trump administration will have to force its close ally Israel to accept at least a path towards Palestinian statehood. In the short term, it’s unlikely that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his hard-line government will give him the space to do so.