Military Escalation: A Tool For Deterrence and Deterrence

Military escalation is the process by which opponents increase the intensity and geographic scope of conflict. It is a powerful tool that can perform multiple functions, from communicating stake and will to demonstrating capability, and is essential to deterrence. Yet a generation of national security professionals has been trained to see escalation in only negative terms, and it has created real problems for not only pre-conflict deterrence but also for conflict termination, achieving desirable outcomes, and managing the aftermath of war.

Escalation consists of a series of tactical and strategic actions, some immediately visible and effective on the battlefield and others less so. Immediate escalation steps are typically tactical in nature and affect the battlefield as soon as they occur; for example, injecting additional troops into a battle generally causes more casualties almost immediately. Other escalation steps are longer-term and more remote in time and space, such as launching a new weapons program or announcing unrestricted submarine warfare.

Military officers and civilian policymakers should not see a choice between operational risk and strategic cost, or between showing “restraint” and escalating to win, but rather recognize that military escalation is an important part of the toolkit for achieving national goals and should be treated as such. The academic literature on escalation provides useful frameworks for thinking about the when, why, and how of escalating. Incorporating these insights into planning and wargames will enable our nation’s military to be better able to make and use this tool.