Regime Change in the Middle East

Regime change involves the overthrow of a government and the installation of a new one. This process can be triggered by revolutions or coups, as well as by economic instability and shifts in global politics and international relations. It also can be initiated by civil society organizations and social movements, which can mobilize protests and advocacy efforts, and by media outlets that are able to communicate with a wider audience. A successful regime-change effort requires an incoming government that is able to navigate the complexities of taking power, implementing its policy agenda, and maintaining law and order.

Despite the high-profile failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, some in the policy community continue to advocate for ousting illiberal governments. The advocates of this approach argue that a regime-change operation can achieve objectives more cheaply and quickly than sustained diplomatic pressure and engagement. Moreover, they contend that such operations do not lead to broader military action or destabilization.

Academic research, however, shows that armed regime-change missions rarely achieve their desired outcome and often create unintended consequences. Additionally, they can be expensive for the intervener and create long-lasting instability for the targeted polity. This evidence argues that American officials should abandon the conventional wisdom that armed regime-change missions are an effective tool for supplanting odious regimes, enhancing democracy, and advancing U.S. national security and humanitarian interests. Instead, they should rely on other foreign-policy tools that are more effective at promoting democracy and human rights.